Nasscom said growth for the current financial year (2016-17) was expected to be 8.6%
Fitch Ratings on Monday cautioned that the Indian government has little fiscal headroom at its disposal to respond to possible shocks to growth given the country's lowest investment grade credit rating with a negative outlook. "India's public debt/GDP ratio, at about 87 per cent in FY21, is well above the median of around 60% for 'BBB' rated sovereigns. "We revised the Outlook on India's rating to Negative, from Stable, in June 2020, partly owing to our assumptions about the impact of the pandemic on public finance metrics. "The government has little fiscal headroom at its current rating level to respond to possible shocks to growth," it said in a report.
With economic activity still to reach pre-pandemic levels, the RBI may slow down the pace of rate hikes until next year to quell soaring inflation while supporting growth, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) says in its latest report. The Manila-based multilateral funding agency has raised the inflation forecast for the current fiscal year ending in March 2023 to 6.7 per cent from its earlier projection of 5.8 per cent. For the next fiscal year too, the forecast has been revised upwards to 5.8 per cent from 5 per cent earlier.
If the projections come true, then India would regain the tag of the fastest growing major economy of the world, crossing China with more than 0.7 percentage point in 2018 and an impressive 1.2 percentage point growth lead in 2019.
As the Ukraine conflict impacts the global GDP, India is projected to grow by 6.4 per cent in 2022, slower than the last year's 8.8 per cent but still the fastest-growing major economy, with higher inflationary pressures and uneven recovery of the labour market curbing private consumption and investment, according to a UN report. The UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs said in its World Economic Situation and Prospects (WESP) report released on Wednesday that the war in Ukraine has upended the fragile economic recovery from the pandemic, triggering a devastating humanitarian crisis in Europe, increasing food and commodity prices and globally exacerbating inflationary pressures. The global economy is now projected to grow by only 3.1 per cent in 2022, down from the 4.0 per cent growth forecast released in January 2022.
Of the six-member rate-setting monetary policy committee, five members voted for a 25 bps cut while one by 40 bps, the RBI said.
Notwithstanding lower growth rates recorded in the first quarter (Q1) of 2023-24 (FY24), which spanned from April to June, footwear stocks have seen some gains in the past two trading sessions. Bata India saw an increase of approximately 5 per cent, driven by positive expectations surrounding a potential tie-up in the sports/athleisure segment. This development is viewed favourably due to the segment's higher growth rates.
WPI inflation fell to a 5-year low of 3.74 per cent while the retail inflation was at 7.8 per cent in August.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Wednesday raised the benchmark lending rate by 35 basis points to 6.25 per cent in a bid to tame inflation, which has remained above its tolerance level for the past 11 months. With the latest hike, the repo rate or the short-term lending rate at which banks borrow from the central bank now has crossed 6 per cent. This is the fifth consecutive rate hike after a 40 basis points increase in May and 50 basis points hike each in June, August and September.
Billionaire Gautam Adani's embattled conglomerate said its balance sheet is "very healthy" and is laser focused on continuing business momentum, as it looked to reassure investors to keep faith in the conglomerate despite a share rout triggered by a damning report by a US short-seller. Group CFO Jugeshinder (Robbie) Singh in an earnings call said the group is confident of its internal controls, compliance and corporate governance. Separately, it released a compendium of group companies to highlight that it has adequate cash reserves and has ability to refinance debt.
'An eerie similarity with 2019 inflation trajectory could now mean that the RBI and market inflation estimates could go awry.'
The disruptions caused by COVID-19 have more severely impacted small and mid-sized corporates, including NBFCs and MFIs, in terms of access to liquidity.
Raghuram Rajan, who was Chief Economic Advisor in the Finance Ministry before taking over as RBI Governor on September 4, is scheduled to announce the next mid-quarter policy review on December 18.
The Indian rupee is down nearly 2 per cent against the US dollar since the beginning of January 2019. Experts attribute the Indian rupee's relatively poor performance to a sharper-than-expected fall in economic growth in India.
Reserve Bank will have to constantly re-assess the "dynamic and fast changing situation" and tailor its actions accordingly, Governor Shaktikanta Das said during the recent meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) which decided to maintain status quo on key interest rate. According to the minutes of the six-member MPC meet released by Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Friday, the five other members had also expressed a similar opinion amid the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict's impact on the global and domestic economies. MPC, which held its meeting from April 6-8, unanimously decided to keep the borrowing costs unchanged at a record low for the 11th time in a row in a bid to continue supporting economic growth despite inflation edging higher in the aftermath of Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Bank credit offtake is expected to pick up following normalisation of economic activities aided by the government thrust on public expenditure in current fiscal year, a report said. According to the Care Edge report, the gross non-performing assets (GNPA) ratio hit a six-year low of 5.9 per cent in FY22 but remained above the pre-asset quality review of 2015-16. However, it said, India's NPA ratio is one of the highest among the comparable countries despite gradual decline.
Asian Development Bank on Wednesday lowered India's economic growth forecast for FY2019 to 5.1 per cent on slowing job prospects, rural distress exacerbated by poor harvest and credit crunch. Growth in FY2020 is likely to recover thanks to this support, low oil prices, and a weakening rupee, but risks to the projections remain tilted to the downside, it said on India.
There seems to be no respite for Adani Group companies from the market carnage. All 10 stocks belonging to the conglomerate came under a fresh bout of intense selling pressure on Wednesday as the group's debt levels and repayment capabilities continued to plague investors. Analysts said investors are also concerned about whether the group will be able to maintain its pace of growth, given the current turmoil that has wiped out over Rs 12 trillion in market capitalisation (m-cap) since the start of the year.
Moody's Investors Service on Thursday said India's rising vaccination rate, low interest rates and higher public spending drive the positive outlook for corporate sector.
Navy chief Admiral R Hari Kumar on Monday flagged concerns over growing geo-political power play in the Indo-Pacific, and noted that the US-China rivalry in the region is likely to be a "marathon".
Bank of America Merrill Lynch on Monday trimmed India's economic growth estimates by 30 basis points to 7.1 per cent for the current fiscal, while global financial services giant Morgan Stanley downgraded its GDP growth forecast for the current fiscal to 7.3 per cent from the earlier 7.7 per cent.
In Q1, India's GDP shrank by a staggering 24 per cent year-on-year amid the imposition of one of the most stringent global nationwide lockdowns.
India's inflation trajectory in the coming months will be influenced more by the geo-political situation due to the war in Europe and its impact on supply chains and commodity prices. However, the country is better placed than most to "weather the storm" and achieve growth of close to 8 per cent in the current fiscal year, the finance ministry said in its latest monthly economic report on Thursday. "Through the channel of imports, elevated global crude and edible oil prices now have a significant impact on India's inflation outlook. "Government measures to keep the prices of these commodities in check, along with the recent hike in policy rates by the RBI, are expected to temper inflationary pressures in the economy," the monthly economic report for April, drafted by the finance ministry's economic division, said.
In a tightening cycle, a premature pause in monetary policy action would be a costly policy error, Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das opined while voting along with five other members of the MPC for raising the key lending rate by 35 basis points earlier this month, according to the minutes of the meeting released on Wednesday. Prior to the December hike in repo rate, the RBI had raised the key short-term lending rate by 190 bps in four tranche.
India has built up buffers against cyclical difficulties and has ample foreign exchange reserves to withstand pressure on credit worthiness, S&P Global Ratings said on Thursday. Speaking at the India Credit Spotlight 2022 webinar, S&P Sovereign & International Public Finance Ratings director Andrew Wood said the country has a strong external balance sheet and limited external debt, making debt servicing not so expensive. "The country has built up buffers against cyclical difficulties like those, which we are experiencing right now," Wood said.
Equity investors have become poorer by more than Rs 18.74 lakh crore as the market continued to remain bearish for the fifth session on the trot on Thursday. The 30-share BSE Sensex tumbled 1,158.08 points or 2.14 per cent to end below the 53,000-level at 52,930.31 points on Thursday. Markets have been falling for five straight sessions and the BSE benchmark has tumbled 2,771.92 points or 4.97 per cent during this period.
India's services sector activities touched the highest mark since April 2011 amid ongoing improvements in demand conditions, even as cost pressures in the service economy remained stubbornly high, a monthly survey said on Tuesday. The seasonally adjusted S&P Global India Services PMI Business Activity Index rose from 58.9 in May to 59.2 in June -- its highest mark since April 2011. For the eleventh straight month, the services sector witnessed an expansion in output. In Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) parlance, a print above 50 means expansion while a score below 50 denotes contraction.
India's manufacturing sector activity hit the highest level in eight months in July, driven by a significant rise in business orders, a monthly survey said on Monday. The seasonally adjusted S&P Global India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index rose from 53.9 in June to 56.4 in July, reflecting the strongest improvement in the health of the sector in eight months. The July PMI data pointed to an improvement in overall operating conditions for the 13th straight month.
S&P Global Ratings on Thursday cut India's growth forecast for the current fiscal to 9.5 per cent, from 11 per cent earlier, and warned of risk to the outlook from further waves of COVID pandemic. The agency lowered the growth outlook saying that a severe second COVID-19 outbreak in April and May led to lockdowns imposed by states and sharp contraction in economic activity. "We forecast growth of 9.5 per cent this fiscal year from our March forecast of 11 per cent," S&P said.
Growth forecast has been lowered owing to tepid growth in the first half of 2017-18, the lingering effects of demonetisation, transitory challenges of GST, and some risks to agriculture stemming from a spotty monsoon.
